GameOnToday.com

NFL Situation Spotlight – # 131: Teams with a crime under way at the beginning of the season

Back during the 2008 season-cons, some pages news quietly made their way into my weekly NFL game reports, led to the handicapper DIY, really hungry team stats match up useful data and player head to head.

The three new pages have been a welcome addition. But one in particular has been especially useful because it allows the correct analysis of data on the computer in a way that was not possible until now (at least in my database anyway).

Transfer Payment spoke with graphics on the page, which has 15 different cards that explore a number of key statistics and evaluations and their trajectories throughout the season.

Prior to 2008, comparing statistics from one week to another was not something that could be easily reviewed and analyzed in using STAT my software. My tendencies are focused primarily on "a single data point, as rushing yards in a previous game, or season to date averages have not taken account in the same measure may have served in the previous week and the week before, and yes, agree.

expand the database last year and found the ability to explore along the seasonal fluctuations of several important statistics such as: the quality of equipment is a crime (POF) or Rush Defense (RDE) – to name just two – allowed me to isolate a number of interesting trends in the last 12 months one of them becomes the subject of this article.

The statistics in question involves a team attack rating go far in his last three games (L3 POF) and specifically: the consistency of this measure has been in a season.

"Consistency in the world of mathematics, called" deviation "and is very easy to calculate. As for my analysis, I like to see the average deviation (ADEV).

An example of this would be entering a team in Week 7, which had a 0.60 POF L3 at week 4, -0.25 at week 5 and 0.30 at week 6, giving an average of POF L3 – 0.2167 (from 0.60 0.25 + 0.30) / 3. The average difference can be calculated by taking the sum of the "differences" between the value of each individual and mean (-0.2167) divided by the number of values (3). The result in this case 0.4556.

The average gap is generally POF L3 about 0.7. But to the extent that this trend is concerned, we are interested only on computers with a very consistent L3 POF which has a mean deviation less than 0.2.

Since 1994, teams with less than 0.2 L3 ADEV POF are amazing 136-95 (58.9%) ATS produces a clear profit of $ 3970.00 by $ 110 to recover $ 100.00 for each game this trend has had an even more successful in the past six seasons, with a record of 63-36 ATS on the basis of this condition.

At this stage, should be noted that, due to my fundamental issues such as POE and RDE only are starting to follow within three weeks of the regular season (two sets of data needed to calculate U.S. dollars) and the separate calculation of the deviation measures average require at least two again, but this trend becomes active in Week 4, which also happens to be the week that it is more likely to appear in.

After week 7, the number of teams ADEV with less than 0.2 decreased significantly, thanks to the increased possibility of at least one very bad (or good quality) performance ADEV that serve to increase beyond our point of reference.

Now, a 136-95 record in 15 seasons is nothing to sneeze ATS cases, but with the addition of a number of associated "secondary" conditions, we can improve profitabililty this general trend.

The first of these conditions concerns the elimination of all teams who come to spend Offense Rating (POF)> 0.5 in the previous season.

The teams have recently experienced a season pass with a score of Offense probably high enough to put in the top five in the league are just 19-32 L3 ATS when a POF also ADEV of> 0.2, then, once this condition is added improvement 116-62 record (65.2%) and a profit ATS $ 4,780.00.

Why are computers that have a predictable Pass crime in the first half of the season – and could be good or bad – so damn well against the number?

The answers are not so clear, to be honest. But it is probably more to do with the undervaluation linesmaker usually teams they have produced a constant good (or bad) As to the efforts of the air war, more than anything.

Regardless of the logic of the problems, this trend is undoubtedly look into the 2009 season.

For all the details, and two other secondary conditions that increase winning percentage is 70%, please read on.

(Notes: ASMR spreads average margin index. A positive score indicates a trend that is longer than the average online negative – weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league who have been involved in this situation at one time or another. Weight% is the percentage of teams that are 0500 or more and half the differential SPR equipment in this situation. For more details, see page 18 of my 2009 NFL Game Reports Guide.)

Trend # 131 Summary of the situation

Terms Primary (building blocks) MedlinePlus
1) Pass Offense Rating average deviation L3 (L3 ADEV POF) <0.2. MedlinePlus

Terms Secondary (backup) MedlinePlus
1) Do not Pass Offense Note (POF)> 0.5 last season. MedlinePlus
2) To exclude four victories before the season (PSW). MedlinePlus
3) Articles Exclude average (AP)> 30 per game. MedlinePlus

Location MedlinePlus Statistics
Rams: -0.7 MedlinePlus
Home% 53 MedlinePlus
% Dog: 48 MedlinePlus
94% TDIS MedlinePlus
Weight%: 60 MedlinePlus
SPR: 0.4 MedlinePlus
Main equipment: BAL (15), OAK (11) Min (9) MIA (8), BUF (7) MedlinePlus

MedlinePlus see the situation
In general (94): 109-45 <b> </ b> ATS MedlinePlus
2008 Season: 5-1 ATS MedlinePlus
2007 Season: 5-2 ATS MedlinePlus
Season 2006: 8-4 ATS MedlinePlus
2005 Season: 10-6 ATS MedlinePlus
2004 Season: 7-3 ATS MedlinePlus

Last 5 results. Choose brackets. MedlinePlus
WK7 2008 – KC RTE 34 of 10 (ten -9) W MedlinePlus
2008 Workshop BAL TEN 5-13 ten (10 -3) P MedlinePlus
WK4 2008 – BAL 23 PIT 20 (BAL 5.5) MedlinePlus W
2008 WK4 – CHI 24 PHI 20 (3 CHI) W MedlinePlus
WK4 2008 – 31 14 STL BUF (BUF -8) W MedlinePlus

About the Author

Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.

Robert Oberst’s Online Player Profile from the 2009 ELITE Pro Football Combines

Head Coach Football-coach Your Team to Victory Today New-still factory sealed…

Trivia Deluxe & Quizzler Pro $44.99 This software is BRAND NEW. Packaging may differ slightly from the stock photo above. Please click on our logo above to see over 15,000 titles in stock….