2006 Nfl Stats
NFL Situation Spotlight – # 97: Rush Offense Rating (ROF) Mis-Match
This is a situation that will undoubtedly be appreciated by purists who believe that the effectiveness of the teams play a hurry is the most important factor in deciding who wins and finally covering the spread. There teams with higher Rush Offense Rating (ROF), compared to his opponent in the course and produced a record of 135-52 ATS since 1994, after the addition of a number of other essential conditions.
Before going further, I should mention that the detailed description of how to calculate rainfall team and specifications can be read on my homepage (Http: / / www.armchairanalysis.com) as part of an article titled "13 Killer NFL Statistics: A baker's dozen of useful statistics for the spread disabilities. Also, some projectors trend of "publishing articles on my website also provide other examples of these basic dimensions and their various uses.
Very briefly, a teams ROF is calculated based on average yards per carry strike teams and adjusting this figure for the quality of the defenses to lead this team was faced with the season so far.
Along ROF 0 indicates a team is stronger than average in this department for ROF below 0 means the opposite.
In the case of No. 97 position, we will examine the equipment with a ROF that is at least 0.50 points above his rating of his opponents.
When it comes to the ROF a point of half is important and what usually involves a difference of 10 to 12 positions in the league standings for this statistic.
Among them, the teams have a much larger number are ROF highly profitable, but when they come to play against a team that has done well in terms of victories instead of the previous season, we have a major drawback to our provision.
Since 1994, teams with an opponent at ROF least 0.50 points higher than their own is an amazing 313-218 ATS (58.9%) between 4 and 17 weeks of the regular season, when the opponent is also a playoff team last season. In the past 14 years, this trend has produced a profit of $ 7,320 in Paris for $ 110.00 $ 100.00 in exchange for one game
This is one of the most powerful trends that I have known in recent years and has become a benefit single season since 1994 except one (2006) and was a solid 32-21 ATS last year.
So what the terms of this situation and why is it so successful? The answer to this question can be found by looking more closely at some of the statistics behind.
Of the 531 teams involved in this situation over the past 14 years, 63.0% of them had a winning record or a record of at least 0500, again the average difference was 0.7 points, and the team has also been a loss of 54.4% of the time.
Another clue lies in the fact that this is the hottest week 4 and 5 (the first 2 weeks of the season, which is active.) The teams consist of a much higher ROF against a team in the playoffs last year are 59-27 ATS before week 6.
What these statistics show that there is a bias that bettors have the teams that were in the playoffs last year, on paris especially when the games start next season.
This bias in favor of the teams that made last season after the fact can create a situation where 'line-value "in betting against the house, especially if you are currently facing a team that brings the ball much more effectively.
the last playoff teams are actually a bad bet it all the way through week 16 of next year and a record of 1077-1184 ATS since 1994 as a percentage winning only 47.6%.
However, if this trend is very cost using only the first two conditions mentioned above, there is a condition the third and final point I would add, to significantly reduce the number of defendants, maintaining a similar level of benefit – essentially increasing our ROI (return on investment).
This condition specifies that, in addition to a significant advantage over his opponent at ROF to be the equipment in question must also have a ROF that is at least 0.50 points above his previous season .. ROF
The teams in this situation have a habit to be dumped due to factors that make teams playoff recent dubious bet – beginners and intermediate bettors can not help it to Paris on the basis what a team last year or even last year and this will always affect the line.
In determining the teams that have significantly improved their game ground last season, recording improvement trend 152-79 ATS (65.8%) since 1994.
Full details of this are listed below including a final "tension" that improves its performance further.
# 97 Summary of the situation Trend
Terms Primary (building blocks)
1) Rush offense Rating (ROF) – Opponent ROF> 0.5.
2) current ROF – ROF seasons> 0.5.
3) opponent this season was a playoff team.
Secondary Conditions (braces)
1) Include only between games 4 and 17 weeks.
2) Passing attempts to exclude (PAF)
Location Statistics
Rams: -0.1
% Home: 50.5
Dog%: 57.7
TDIS%: 96.9
Weight%: 63.3
SPR: 1.2
Top teams: PHI (17) MIN (16) ATL (13) OAK (12)
State Archive
In general (94): 135-52 ATS
2007 Season: 13-3 ATS
2006 Season: 11-6 ATS
2005 Season: 9-1 ATS
2004 Season: 11-4 ATS
Last three results. Choose parentheses.
WK15 2007-20 13 CHI MIN (Min -10) L
WK14 2007 – CLE 24 NYJ 18 (-3.5 CLE) W
WK13 2007 – TB 27 NO 23 (3 TB) W
About the Author
Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.
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