2006 Nfl Results
Focus on the situation of the NFL – # 46: Teams with a score of high-pass defense
If someone where I ask " the only statistic in the NFL in particular that the class as indispensable point against the spread "? not take long to respond. The answer – Go Defense ratings, or PDE for short.
This may be a surprise to those purists who believe that the NFL is based on the rushing game, but yes, at what point the defense team against the pass is a significant predictor of future results and this article will explore how these statistics can influence directly on the mood and the subsequent actions of punter of Paris-average Joe "in appropriate circumstances.
The most effective way to measure the quality of the equipment of a pass defense (to the extent of disability compared with the points gap is concerned) is to use through the yard, adjusted for the strength of the team's passing offenses faced during the season.
For example, entering the final week of the 2006 season, Chicago ranked second in the league with a rating of 0.75 EGP. This is calculated by taking the average yards per pass play defense Chicago (4.77) and subtracting the way their opponents have the ball past the pool (5.52 yards per pass play offense). 5.52 to 4.77 = 0.75. It should be noted that if a score is calculated as offensive or defensive – a positive number always indicates a team that is better than average, while negative feedback indicates a team that is below average in that category we studied.
Now that I've explained the math, what are the potential uses of these statistics? A special situation PDE shows its predictive power is that the team in question has a rated capacity of the PDE> 0.50 and a single game in which they closed their opponents ground attack.
The public likes to bet on the teams the hard times and defenses, therefore, since 1994, teams with a score> 0.50 EGP are very low, 706-789 ATS (47.2%).
This is the first main condition of this particular situation. The second is that our team will focus only game in which his opponent is limited less than 75 yards rushing. After this stipulation, the question now becomes 167-260 ATS (39.1%), which would meaning a profit of $ 7630 bet against this team $ 110 from Paris to 10/11 odds.
If we consider another major conditions specified the team in question also have limited their last opponent to fewer than 60 total offensive plays – we have a real tendency of the situation is brutally 73-157 ATS (31.7%) since 1994.
The defense team is going through difficult a strong defensive effort – in particular about rushing against – Create a situation that is difficult even for experienced handicappers to dismiss. How can you not like a team that seems to be impenetrable in the air and on land?
Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay were victims of this situation as during the last 13 seasons with Denver and Baltimore Not far behind. This trend is particularly well distributed, however, as 93.8% of the league teams have been involved at some point another from 94.
There are a number of secondary illnesses that complement this. The teams they want, even after a field goal at the end of fighting in a previous session are not included, and games where the opponent comes with a dog win straight-up. The details are below.
(Notes: ASM margin means ADI% average spread and the percentage of teams in the league who have been involved in this situation at one time or another weight%. is the percentage of teams that are 0500 or more and SPR is the average spread of the teams in this situation.)
Evolution the situation # 46 Summary (Last Modified: January 15, 2008)
Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Pass Defense Rating (BDP)> 0.50.
2) Last match racing against yards (RYA) 3) Last game against Total plays (TPA)
Terms Secondary (backup)
1) To exclude loss FG clutch at the last meeting (LM4).
2) The words (OR) 3) is not an opponent SU dog win.
Location Statistics
ASM: -5.2
Home%: 42.7
Dog%: 32.7
TDIS%: 96.9
Weight%: 84.2
SPR: -2.63
Top teams: PIT (20) tuberculosis (14), DEN (13), BAL (12)
State Archive
Overall (94): 32-127 ATS
2007 Season: 3-10 ATS
2006 Season: 4-13 ATS
2005 Season: 1-9 ATS
2004 Season: 5-11 ATS
Last three results. Choose brackets.
2007 WK18-SD 17 TEN 6 (SD -10) W
2007 WK18-35 is 14 MAR (SEA -3.5) W
2007 WK17-TEN 16 IND 10 (ten -5.5) W
About the Author
Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and situational trend analysis, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.
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