2005 Nfl Standings
Simple NFL Systems – # 112: Favorite and low temperature
After 14 years of active NFL disadvantage compared to the line of Las Vegas I had the opportunity to explore literally hundreds of different trends based on a wide range of statistical factors and the situation, covering almost all aspects Game
The key word above is "almost" and an area that I have not covered important thing is that the playing conditions, a category that includes variables such as temperature at game time, humidity and wind speed along to play the type of surface, and general weather conditions (outdoor temperature and humidity) so early in the game (for example, Partly sunny, cloudy, snow, rain, etc.).
The biggest reason I ignored this data over the last decade and a half is probably more a matter of time before anything else: Paris based on weather conditions it is difficult to six days before a game is really played – that's when my full analysis is normally delivered to my customers and others who may be interested in some of the trends of the sample I provided.
Ultimately, the question of whether or not a trend based in time or not at stake must be made within 30-60 minutes before the game, which is obviously not on my schedule, in fact everything right.
Despite this, I thought could still be useful to examine some of these factors during Summer '08 book and use game data from the past 7 seasons, I've added The following six columns to my database data to further study:
Temperature (TEMP)
Humidity (HUMD)
Wind speed (in WSPD)
Wind Direction (WDIR)
Conditions (COND)
Playing surface (SURF)
The top 5 are based on meteorological measurements made the game time and my data are, unfortunately, quite advanced to account for if the sun came out five minutes in a match that started under a heavy rain or when wind increased to 10 mph in the second half, etc, etc.
Furthermore, as I did my best to standardize and simplify the general "conditions" listed in each book of games (eg, possibility of rain, cloudy, etc), an editor on-site interpretation of "light snow" could be more like a snow storm "another person, as they are, of Florida, or Fargo.
Add at the end of the day, the underlying subjectivity should be taken into account when attempting to use this information as a tool "hard and fast for the disabled.
The various limitations of these data with no date, I managed to find a few interesting trends that were present in the last 7 years and I'll be presenting some of these next months, the form of "Simple" Systems of this item.
One of the first things that caught my attention after Crunch the numbers for a few days is that: Favorites at least three points are a good bet at a specific temperature.
What range you ask? It lies between 20 degrees Fahrenheit and degrees Fahrenheit 34, the latter which is just a hair above the freezing point of 32 degrees.
Favorites playing at least 3 points in this temperature range is an excellent 44 26 (62.9%) ATS since 2001, producing a profit of $ 1,540.00 in 10/11 (odds bet of $ 110 to $ 100 back in each game). This situation has been equally strong favs at home and the road. It is 37-23 ATS at home and a 7-3 comparable ATS on the road.
Before going further, there is some possibility of "red flags" raised by the issue, which can run as in 2008 and beyond.
The first is the fact that less than half the league teams have fallen into this situation (46.9% to be exact) since 2001 – obviously, because many teams simply do not play in the often cold outdoor conditions. In addition, also happen to be facing a relatively narrow range since the temperature in the Games is that it may or may not be really significant in the long term.
While I am a warning about this potential future development, it is certainly important enough to warrant further study in the next season and I am even more convinced of this fact after 2 secondary conditions are added to the mixture.
The first is to remove all the games before the 13th week and the playoffs. This has had mixed results at week 13, before and during Post season where a different set of rules apply to the extent of how they behave against the spread teams.
Includes games only between 13 and 17 weeks, which are essentially only attention to competition in December, where a temperature of 20-34 degrees is the most widely used anyway. Once this condition is added, the record improved significantly to 34-12 (73.9%) TTY.
The second and final condition of this secondary is related to the climate and humidity was no time to play is at least 50%.
Anyone familiar with the term "Humidex is aware of the unpleasant effects that moisture can have higher levels when combined with high temperatures.
What is not well known is the fact that the rate of High humidity can also increase the level of discomfort in cold conditions due to the effect levels increased moisture in the air can penetrate clothing, which is used to make the air colder than it really is.
Again, in this case, the favorite seems enjoy and after removal of all games with an average humidity level below, this situation is improving to 34-8 ATS (81.0%) with a profit of $ 2520.00 in the last 7 years.
For those wishing to use this situation in 2008: Here is a comprehensive summary every detail.
(Notes: ASMR mean average score margin. On a positive note indicates a trend that is stronger than the average line, negative – weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league who have been involved in this situation at a time or another. Wt% is the percentage of teams that are 0500 or more and RPD is the average difference of the teams in this situation. For more details, see page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)
Abstract # 112 System
Primary Conditions (Building blocks)
1)> Favorites 3 pts.
2) game time temperature of 20-34 degrees Fahrenheit
Secondary Conditions (Reinforcements)
1) week of 13-17.
2) Games> Time = 50% humidity.
Statistics System
RAM: 1.6
Home%: 76.2
Dog%: 0.0
TDIS% 43.8WT%: 85.7
SPR: -6.8
Top teams: PIT (8) GB (7), NE (7), DEN (4)
Registration System
In general (since '01): 34-8 ATS
2007 Season: 7-0 ATS
Season 2006 2-1 ATS
2005 Season: 9-1 ATS
2004 Season: 6-2 ATS
Last three results. Choose brackets
2007 WK17 – DET GB 24 13 (GB -4) W
WK15 2007 – TEN 26 KC 17 (TEN -3.5) W
WK15 2007 – Article 8 BUF 0 (CLE -6) W
About the Author
Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.
2006 NFL Season – TSB Style – Super Bowl II (Part 1)
