2005 Nfl Schedule
Simple NFL Systems – # 65 and # 90: Revenge Sov and playoffs
Seeing that we are less than two weeks removed from one of the most exciting post-seasons come in recent history (congratulations to the New York Giants), it seems the right time to discuss a couple of different series of systems that both have been successful in 2007, one with a record of 5-1 ATS and the other with a perfect 3-0 cons of the tag number.
Handicapping the playoffs effectively requires a different view of the regular season and while some of the trends that I use between September and December and January are valid in most of my post-season is based on a six trends several that are specific only the playoffs, all of whom have found great success in the past 14 years.
The two will be the subject of this article are very simple in nature and a small amount of effort on their part, can become valuable tools to disable that in the 2008 playoffs.
The first is an interesting statistic that I found very effective in predicting the spread winners in the playoffs: Resistance Victoria (SOV).
SOV is essentially the 'half-brother of the Strength of Schedule (SOS). The difference is that instead of a total the folders of livestock and loss of all the adversaries met, we will only look at the losses to the opposition won a team that has won. This calculation, of course, take less effort to bad teams (Miami SOV 0.31 from 2007 does not take long for the calculation) and more time on some of the best teams in the league.
A good example of the 2007 season is Kansas City and SOV 0.47; This was achieved by defeating four opponents (Minnesota, San Diego, Cincinnati and Oakland), who finished the regular season with a combined record 30-34.
The league average for SOV is usually around .400 and has made Kansas City tie for second place in this category, with Atlanta and New England (One of the few areas of statistics, where leaders have '07 near the top of League).
So what have SOV successfully pick the winners in the playoffs? It is very simple – since 1994, teams in the playoffs playoffs with a low VOC content of his opponent, are 88-57 (60.7%) ATS a small profit of $ 2530.00 ($ 110 bet to recover $ 100).
Only There is another important condition which must be added to this trend and is the team with the lowest VOC must also have had a more straight-up winning percentage last season (LS WP).
The addition of this condition creates the third and final 40-6 ATS situation that was 5-1 in the '07 playoffs and never below 0500 in comparison with the number of the last 14 years.
Curiously, this has a fairly balanced between the teams playing at home road and equipment, as well as your favorites and underdogs. Close two-thirds of NBA teams have participated since 1994.
The next playoff system I would like to see (# 90) based also two different conditions (in addition to specifying this to see only playoff games, of course). This trend was almost perfect from the year 1994: 21-1 ATS, with its only loss in 2003 after the season, when he went 5-1.
This success based on computers seek 'revenge' after its loss in the last game played against his opponent or the current season, or one of the last two seasons. Also like to point out that the team in this situation must also have been a favorite in the previous game, saving a break of current opponent.
Just a quick word about the previous meetings: When we look at these games, basically broken into two different classifications: LM2 and LM4. This particular trend in classification LM2 (the last meeting in the current, or last two seasons), whereas type extends LM4 include a previous meeting to the extent that the past four seasons. For the exact circumstances are treated in a previous game, a classification LM4 times more efficient, while in other cases, a game must be newer, so use the type of LM2.
We analyzed a total of 20 different statistics of previous meetings, as running and passing the film, the penalty yards, time of possession and turnovers, etc., but usually is the end result itself provides the vision generally covering more than one game in progress.
Past meetings end up as a reverse "or ends in the fourth quarter of Return Win or clutch are exactly the kind of games that allow a computer or other search forward to the next meeting where things can be "corrected."
And what better time of year to call for revenge in the eye and highlight the NFL playoffs? This is illustrated by the fact that since 1994 the teams UB playoff lost as a favorite against his opponent in their last meeting (LM2 classification) compared remarkable line: 32-10 ATS (76.2%) for a gain of $ 2,100 ($ 110 bet to win back $ 100 per set).
For those who want to take things a step further: if one adds the condition that this season the teams above / below average (% VO) is at least 50% (which mean, they went on the minimum number of half its games), the record of this situation is 21-1 (95.5%) ATS since 1994.
Here are all the details on these two systems.
(Notes: ASMR mean average score margin. A positive score indicates a tendency that is stronger than the average of the line, negative – weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league who have been involved in this situation at one time or another. Wt% is the percentage of teams that are 0500 or more and SPR is the average spread of the teams in this situation. For more details, if Please see page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)
# 65 System Overview
Terms Primary (Building blocks)
1) playoff game.
2) season opponent has a higher resistance of the Victoria (SOV).
3) recent rate winning season (WP LS) LS WP the adversary.
Secondary Conditions (braces)
1) None.
Statistics System
-0.2 RAM
% Home: 53.2
Dog%: 38.3
TDIS%: 62.5
Weight%: 100.0
SPR: -1.22
Top teams: MER (6) NE (5), PHI (5) DEN (4)
System Documents
Overall (94): 40-6 ATS
2007 Season: 5-1 ATS
2006 Season: 3-1 ATS
2005 Season: 4-1 ATS
2004 Season: 4-0 ATS
Last three results. Choose brackets.
2007 WK20 – NE 21 ± 12 (SD 14) W
WK19 2007 – IND 28 SD 24 (SD 9) W
WK19 2007-20 MAR 42 GB (SEA 7)
System No. 90 Summary
Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) playoff game.
2) Direct loss against this opponent favorite stations running or L2 (LM2).
Secondary Conditions (braces)
1) He finished the season% (VO%)> = 50
Statistics System
RAM -1.8
Home%: 34.8
Dog%: 52.2
TDIS%: 43.8
Weight%: 100.0
SPR: -0.33
Top teams: DEN (3), PIT (3) IND (2), JAC (2)
File System
In general (94): 21-1 ATS
2007 Season: 3-0 ATS
2006 Season: ATS 1-0
2005 Season: 1-0 ATS
2004 Season: 1-0 ATS
Last three results. Choose brackets.
WK20 2007 – NYG 23 F 20 (NYG 7-5) W
WK19 2007 – NE 31 20 JAC (JAC 13) W
2007 WK18 – JAC 31 PIT 29 PIT (2.5) W
About the Author
Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.
Steve Mcnair Emotional Inspirational Tribute ( RIP 1973-2009)
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2005 NFL team-by-team schedules.(Names and Numbers): An article from: Football Digest $5.95 This digital document is an article from Football Digest, published by Thomson Gale on October 1, 2005. The length of the article is 3865 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.Citation DetailsTitle: 2005 NFL te… |
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2005 NFL schedule.(Names and Numbers): An article from: Football Digest $5.95 This digital document is an article from Football Digest, published by Thomson Gale on October 1, 2005. The length of the article is 2200 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.Citation DetailsTitle: 2005 NFL sc… |
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Remaining 2005 NFL weekly schedule.(Names and Numbers): An article from: Football Digest $5.95 This digital document is an article from Football Digest, published by Thomson Gale on November 1, 2005. The length of the article is 2386 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.Citation DetailsTitle: Remaining … |
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NFL Philadelphia Eagles 2005-6 Schedule downloadable Software Track your favorite NFL team throughout their 2005-2006 Season. This is a must for any NFL Football Fan. * View the Season Schedule * Enter Scores and track game stats (Wins, Loses, etc) * Add the entire season or any game to the Datebook database at the click of a button. Demo: The demo only displays the first 5 games. To see the entire schedule you must purchase the software and enter t… |
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