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Simple NFL Systems – # 18: Early season Match-ups and Pythagorean Win%

Similar to the playoffs, the first games of this season should be very different to the disabled those played after around Week 3 of the regular season – when it comes to using the methods situation.

One major challenge at this stage of the season is the lack of useful data has recently been competition.

Unfortunately, the preseason games has never been a good indicator of what lies in store for a team in the first weeks of the regular season. The large number of players seeing the playing time the last preseason cut or relegated to the status of second or third team does not help, nor the fact that the QB's capital and other major players who are out to field for a handful of plays in the first game, anyway.

All is not lost, but, as there are key statistics from the previous season can give a true understanding of the games in the first part of next year, and there is history between the two teams involved that can be seen (more on this below).

A key statistic from last season that serves as a tool of disability at the start of next is the winning percentage Pythagoras.

Pythagorean winning percentage (PWP) was developed by sabermetrics pioneered by Bill James as a method to eliminate the effects the "possibility" of a baseball team won / lost record only focus for the future and it is against. The formula works both the National Football League after a minor adjustment, the most important thing is to use the pros and cons in calculating compared to "bleed."

Comparison of PWP team has with his real winning percentage, it becomes easy to determine what teams have had an overabundance of good or bad misfortune – knowledge that has obvious implications for those of us trying to disability based on games Today on past performance.

PWP, which applies to Major League Baseball has seen a number of improvements since James arrived with the idea and the most advanced formula no longer consider running not only themselves but also the relationship between singles, doubles, homers, etc., which went into production of these tracks, with the replacement of multipliers based on different ball parks where he held the score.

Some of these improvements apply to both the game of soccer in America North, where the park is obviously identical to the stage of the stadium, and the original formula that James developed for the MLB is a simple, but precise calculation winning percentage of a team that is usually more reliable than won / lost records alone.

PWP formula for NFL teams is as follows:

Points for ^ 2.37 / (2.37 + ^ ^ points to 2.37 points)

An exponent of 2.37 was found to provide the most accurate results the NFL, while 1.83 is the exponent of the most used for MLB teams. This formula works well when applied to teams in the NBA, where an exponent between 14 and 16 is widespread.

To better explain exactly how this formula works, it's probably better to look at some examples of last season.

New England Patriots are an example of a team actually "exceeded" in 2007, when he won his / loss record is 16-0 compared with PWP.

Anyone who watched the Pats-Ravens game in week 15 and to a lesser extent, their last regular season against the Giants, would probably agree in New England easily could have ended the season at 15-1 or 14-2, and their performances PWP any of these documents was actually more indicative of his level of play '07.

Based on 589 points and 274 points against New England, equivalent to 0.860 PWP (589 ^ 2.37 / (589 + 274 ^ 2.37 ^ 2.37)).

Given their difference in PWP WP 0140 (1000-0860) appears in New England was actually more so that most teams in the league last year, a notice that Ray Lewis and the rest of the Ravens is of course not to argue.

An example of a team under performance in 2007 would be the Philadelphia Eagles, who finished the year at 8-8, still had a PWP of 0567 (336 ^ 2.37 / (336 + 300 ^ 2.37 ^ 2.37)), which leads us to believe that they were perhaps more deserved of a record of 9-7.

So how does one figure PWP team last season in the process of disability in the first games of the following?

An interesting use of this statistic includes the teams that have had a PWP (if this meeting occurred during the four years). Teams in this situation are very low, 33-60 ATS (35.5%) since 1994 in the first two weeks of the season Regular immediately afterwards.

As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, signed between the two teams in question is an important early season and In this case, teams with a low PWP from the previous season are also facing an opponent who may be looking to avenge a defeat relatively recent, creates a combination powerful evil has written from the line during the past 14 years.

While a situation with a 33-60 ATS record is pretty profitable, there is another secondary condition on the last meeting between these two teams, he added, significantly reduces the number of parties involved, maintaining a similar level of profit.

This condition relates to the teams not only won the last meeting, but so compelling (at least offensive of all modes).

When including the teams that won at least 30 points in this game, the record of this comes at a crushing 5-28 ATS (15.2%) for a small profit of $ 2,250.00 in Paris $ 110.00 $ 100.00 to recover against the team in question.

The condition final high school I would add to this trend involves something I've mentioned before, ie, comparing the actual percentage of victories with his team winning percentage Pythagoras.

Computers that meet the criteria discussed so far that the UB has had a winning percentage of at least 0100 points higher than their PWP last season were a perfect 3-0 ATS, then, by removing equipment that has exceeded its PWP by a large margin year above (ie New England), we found a trend that 2-28 ATS since 1994.

Check out all the details.

(Notes: ASMR mean average score margin. A positive score indicates a trend that is above the average of the line, negative – weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league who have been involved in this situation at one time or another weight%. is the percentage of teams that are 0500 or more and SPR is the path difference for the teams in this situation. For details, see page 13 of my 2008 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)

System # 18 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) The game is being played in week 1 or 2 regular season.
2)% seasons of Pythagoras Earn 3) Direct to beat this rival at its last meeting (LM4).

Secondary Conditions (Reinforcements)
1) Teams with a SU WP Exclude at least 0100 points higher than their PWP LS.
2) points of> = 30 in their last meeting (LM4).

System Statistics
RAM: 1.7
% Home: 62.5
Dog%: 56.3
TDIS%: 56.3
Weight%: 68.8
SPR: 1.1
Top teams: CIN (4) NO (4), ATL (2) BUF (2)

Registration System
Overall (94): 2-28 ATS
2007 Season: 0-1 ATS
2006 Season: 0-1 ATS
2005 Season: 0-4 ATS
2004 Season: 0-2 ATS

Past 3 results. Choose parentheses.
WK2 2007 – DET 20 Min 17 (Min 3) P
WK1 2007-3 min 24 ATL (ATL 3) L
WK2 GB 2006 – N º 34 and 27 (2 GB) L

About the Author

Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.

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