2004 Nfl Standings

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May 18th, 2010 admin Leave a comment Go to comments

Focus on the situation of the NFL – No. 107: land and pass grades Down

When it comes to disability from the point of spread the NFL, many teams statistics of the latest games that can be considered.

There are, of course, a lot of statistics being triggers and have a team game, special teams and defensive units. Statistics on turnovers, penalties and how to make equipment in some areas, and area of the Red Cross, are also available. To take things even further: the play-by-plays also reveal trends policy that each team will be in a position where players are generally on the floor catching passes and tackles are the defenders – not to help predict these statistics Who will cover the spread in an upcoming game?

With the expansion and proliferation of many "location" Team Statistics NFL-like in recent years, the sport of Pro-Football seemed to be rooted at No. 2 behind baseball in terms of variety and range of statistics available from the box scores, game books, and other third party sources.

The Punters now have the opportunity to meet efficiency of your favorite team is run the ball between his own 20 yard line and 40 with 4-6 meters to go, for example, with hundreds of other detailed statistics and situations. Is This "Numbers" Overkill "or no value these specialized statistics?

It is important to remember that the spread handicapper at the end of the day Most of the statistics generated in the field during an NFL game belonging to one of two basic parts: a run or pass. Before we can begin to deal effectively situations that are important and which not, the question of how to quantify these two fundamental play-application requires further consideration.

There are several schools of thought on this subject which essentially boil down to two main options: either to see things in terms of yards per game generated, or assign a value to a piece depending on whether or not considered a "success" or not.

Yards per game statistics are quite clear: a computer launched 10 passes, 120 yards will have a net average of 12.0 yards per pass play. Teams that run with the ball five times for 30 yards will average yards carry of 6.0.

systems successfully game points "are a little more complicated and requires a search for" context "of the piece, ie the descent of a team is faced with the metro-to-go, and even the score and time remaining in the game and not only the collection of sites acquired, plays that meet the "success criteria to get a point or points, while those who do not receive 0.

Analysis thus plays is nothing new: the idea was presented nearly 20 years in a 1988 book entitled "The hidden game of football.

The authors of this pioneering work has been estimated that teams succeed General for a possible first and at least 40% of the sites to go first and are acquired and 60% of the sites to use "acquired 2 below. It goes without saying that a room should be considered a success in situations 3 and 4 below, 100% of Construction to carry will be obtained.

Thus, in this context, a gain of three yards on first and 10 in fact can not be considered a successful play (30% YTG) or win Yard 4, 2 and 8 lead a team on the field more often, according to research in 'Hidden Game'.

All spent watching plays in terms of success or sound is not good on paper, when it comes to their overall effectiveness as a tool to predict the point spread future winners, lose hands yards down simplistic game statistics.

It may seem a surprising result, but my research has consistently shown that even the yards of straight-forward steps per game may look rough on the face of more innovative ways to view the results of precipitation and transmission plays, which are still more important trends with respect to the points spread over the past 15 years, when are adjusted by the strength of the face of opponents (see below).

That does not mean that research plays from the perspective of whether "right" or is not completely useless. As will be discussed later in this article, I still have the account management of both teams to move on land and in situations PPJ (Yards per game) and these measures are not in some of my tendencies – including that provided in this section.

And to answer my earlier question statistics on the situation and the relative advantages many divisions is already available is not really a lot of categories that are significant in terms Handicap spread. In my opinion, by land and pass PPJ general statistics reveal interesting trends when analyzed in the following categories (both attack and defense):

– Bottom (1st, 2nd or 3rd + 4th).
– In the Red
– 1T
– Pass the receiver (ie, recipients of the passes, tight ends and corridors)
– When the game is "late and close" (ie, fourth quarter in a close game)
– When the gaps between "Switch" or "Running situations" (ie taken considerable)

Miro There are other situations too, but in addition to the overall capacity to manage a team and pass the ball (both in attack and defense), what are the next most useful.

Things brings us to the situation I would like to explore in this article on the following devices with a first drop in average passing grade (1DPF) and a second peak rating (2DRF) advantage

As mentioned earlier, it is important for playing statistics meters adjusted depending on the strength of different opponents front of the season to date in the same situation. The resulting classification "PPJ reveals whether a team has been the scene at a level that is above or below Average class we are studying.

For example: a team average 3.6 yards per carry in the first game, reaching this total, while that against an opponent that, on average, giving up 4.0 yards per game in the same situation, 1DRF (first race to the bottom) -0.40 Note (4.0 to 3.6).

In this particular case, teams with a score of 141-195 1DPF (42.0%) ATS since 2001.

You will be surprised how I mean by the term "benefit." This article mainly describes the comparison of the skill level of the teams in a given situation or area in relation to how they match your opponent in the progress through the line of scrimmage.

On this particular trend, we are really talking about a situation of disadvantage "that position look at the teams that are classified 2DRF that is at least 1 point worse than 2DRA opponents during evaluation – which is the symbol of the way they defend themselves against runs on second down.

Teams with a score of -0.50 2DRF team faces a +1 2DRA fall into this category would be a team with a score of 2DRF against an opponent with a rating 2 2DRA. Positive values indicate always better than the average level of negative competition, while – worse than average. This is true regardless of whether or not I analysis of a crime team (F) or defense (A).

Therefore, teams are not effective Sthat to pass the ball for the first time in situations and have a clear disadvantage against his opponent when the ball during the second attempt to land was a bad bet to cover the last seven years.

While this trend has shown significant benefit since 2001 these two conditions of primary education ($ 110.00 to $ 3,990.00 $ 100.00 paris to return for each game) when we add a third condition the participation of key statistics in their previous game principal, things start to be even more interesting.

The third and final condition was that the main equipment in question must also be independent in a game that had 11 or more success running plays theater – which I calculated using criteria established in the occult "the football game more than some other" Settings. "

The number 11 has a lot of importance here: the typical league play half rushing in a game.

After adding this condition in the mix, the record of teams involved in this tendency to fall from 54-114 (32.1%) ATS in the last seven years, a small profit of $ 5460.00.

Besides the three main criteria, there are three secondary to other conditions that serve to strengthen the case of this trend further.

More important to ensure the exclusion of the teams are faced with an adversary of a dog instead of winner-right can lead to a situation that the opponent down, and a greater chance that our team's focus will be covered (this is a negative trend after all).

The teams are a loser> = 12 points are also removed along with the opponent teams over 70 yards per game great – an amount greater than the average of averages.

Oh, and the dossier submitted for the 2005 season is not a misprint: this trend was, in fact, 2-21 ATS.

As always, here are the details:

(Notes: ASMR mean average score margin. A score indicates a positive trend that is stronger than the average of the line, negative – weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams League who have been involved in that situation at one point or another. Wt% is the percentage of teams that are 0500 or more and SPR the average spread of the teams in this situation. For more details, if Please see page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)

Trend # 107 Summary of the situation

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
A) below the first half Spend Down Evaluation (batting 1DPF).
2) second tariff advantage Rush Down (2DRF AD) 10 the last game.

Secondary Conditions (reinforcement)
1)> = Exclude current spread 12.
2) the adversary makes a lot of YOUR DOG WIN.
3) the last great opponent Rush Yards (BRYF) per game
Location Statistics
RAM: 0.3
% Home: 46.6
Dog%: 62.7
TDIS%: 87.5
Weight%: 40.7
SPR: 1.8
Top teams: BAL (13) ARI (8) KEY (8), tuberculosis (7)

Location Records
Overall (Since '01): 20-94 ATS
2007 Season: 2-10 ATS
2006 Season: 4-15 ATS
2005 Season: 2-21 ATS
2004 Season: 2-10 ATS

Last three results. Choose brackets.
2007 WK17 – BAL 27 PIT 21 (BAL 3.5) W
WK14 2007 – IND 44 BAL 20 (IND -9) W
WK14 2007 – 34 13 NE PIT (-10.5 BN) W

About the Author

Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.

2004 NFL draft Eli Manning at Madison Square Garden